Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
